If you have a sharp view on a specific token and the time to act on it, hold the token. If you have a view on a sector or the asset class, hold an index.

What an index removes

Picking. Timing. Rebalancing. Rotating in and out as the narrative moves. Watching the market constantly. Each of these is a place where you can lose money even when you're directionally right.

An index does the rotation for you, on a schedule, with capped weights. When a token blows up, the index quietly trims it at the next rebalance. When a new leader emerges, the index brings it in. You don't have to be early. You don't have to be lucky.

When indices underperform

Indices will lose to a perfectly-picked single token. They'll lose to a perfectly-timed sector rotation. They'll lose to anyone who catches the exact bottom and the exact top. Most people aren't that person, including most professionals. The honest comparison isn't index vs hindsight. It's index vs your actual track record.